Yen at 40-Year Low: BoJ's Countdown Begins
USD/JPY breaks through the 158-160 range - the historic tolerance level of the Ministry of Finance. The Bank of Japan has fewer and fewer reasons not to act in July.
Jul 1, 2026 at 09:38 9 9
BoJ: Japanese government incorporates "appropriate monetary policy" - signal strengthens ahead of July
The Kishida government includes the coded phrase "appropriate monetary policy" in its draft annual economic plan—a clear signal of non-opposition to a BoJ rate hike in July, as USD/JPY trades in the 155-157 range and JPY carry trade tensions rise. [ENCADRE titre="Key Context"] [ENCADRE contenu="This language marks a shift from previous statements, aligning with market expectations of a potential Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy adjustment amid persistent yen weakness and inflationary pressures."]
Jun 29, 2026 at 17:16 9 11
Heinrich Vogel
Japan: Government "Encourages" BoJ – Coded Signal Ahead of July Meeting
The Japanese government included in its annual plan on June 29 the notion of an "appropriate monetary policy" – a deliberately ambiguous signal that sets the stage for a possible BoJ rate hike in July, without stating it explicitly. The JPY carry trade is entering a risk zone.
Jun 29, 2026 at 09:02 10 10
Heinrich Vogel
Tokyo: Inflation and BoJ signals validate October hike - JPY carry trade in the red
Tokyo inflation accelerates, BoJ committee members speak openly. The probability of a hike in October 2026 rises sharply. USD/JPY in the 155-157 range: carry trades are on the edge.
Jun 26, 2026 at 08:37 13 13
Heinrich Vogel
BOJ: pro-rate hike consensus confirmed, JPY carry trade remains in maximum turbulence zone
The June Summary of Opinions from the BOJ (06/24) reveals a majority consensus to continue rate hikes. Yen still under pressure, dollar at a 13-month high. USD/JPY in critical 155-160 zone: MoF intervention is no longer an extreme scenario. [ENCADRE titre="Key Takeaways" contenu=" - BOJ signals further tightening - Yen weakens as USD strengthens - Risk of FX intervention rises "]
Jun 25, 2026 at 09:45 10 9