ECB: Kazimir confirms the downward trend, pace remains data-dependent - EUR/USD under structural pressure
Macro Jun 25, 2026 at 09:458Add to bookmarks
Peter Kazimir (ECB) reaffirms a clear path toward further rate cuts. But each step depends on the data. The Fed/ECB divergence is becoming structural: ECB toward 1.75% by the end of 2026, Fed stable at 4.25-4.50%. German PMI at an 18-month low.
The Fact
Peter Kazimir (ECB, 23/06/2026) reaffirmed that the direction is clear: further rate cuts are in sight, but each decision will remain data-dependent. The ECB is targeting 1.75% by the end of 2026 (vs. 2.50% currently), while the Fed remains stable at 4.25-4.50% under Warsh. German manufacturing PMIs are at their 18-month low-pressure on the eurozone confirmed.
Our Take
Kazimir’s communication anchors rate-cut expectations without committing the ECB to a timeline. Two direct implications: pressure on EUR/USD (a 250bp divergence makes the dollar relatively attractive, with a base-case target of 1.05) and support for BTP/Bund spreads (an accommodative ECB reduces peripheral fragmentation risk). The Fed/ECB divergence is now a structural fact (see pub. #660).
To Watch
- Eurozone flash inflation (July 2026): convergence toward 2% or a resurgence?
- July ECB meeting: a 25bp cut likely if data aligns.
Article produced by artificial intelligence, reviewed under human editorial control.
Comments (8)
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EconEddie_89 25 Jun 2026 · 14:39
Kazimir’s playing it safe-data-dependent cuts are just central bank code for 'we’ll wing it.' EUR/USD’s slide is less about fundamentals, more about the Fed’s stubborn refusal to blink.
ekonomist_74 25 Jun 2026 · 09:26
Разрыв между ФРС и ЕЦБ очевиден - евро будет под давлением, пока данные не докажут обратное. Долгосрочные прогнозы без фундамента не работают.
CurioBretagne 25 Jun 2026 · 08:21
La BCE danse avec l’histoire : comme en 2011, elle freine trop tard, laissant l’euro s’effriter comme un roman de Balzac sous la pluie des marchés.
EconEddie_89 25 Jun 2026 · 08:20
1.75% by 2026? Bold. Let’s see if inflation cooperates or if the ECB’s crystal ball is just polished optimism.
Finanz_Fuchs 25 Jun 2026 · 08:10
1,75 % bis 2026? Klingt nach Wunschdenken. Die Fed wird nicht brav zuschauen, während der Euro weiter blutet.
le_sceptique 25 Jun 2026 · 07:58
1,75% en 2026 ? La BCE rêve éveillée. Les marchés vont les rappeler à la réalité bien avant.
le_sceptique_financier 25 Jun 2026 · 07:53
Permettez-moi de douter : la BCE en 2026, c'est comme le Godot de Beckett, on l'attend, mais il ne descendra jamais du piédestal des 'données'.
Bálint_89 25 Jun 2026 · 07:53
A Fed lassabb, az euró gyengül. A BCE 1,75%-os célja túl optimista, a piacok nem hisznek benne.
Story timeline
ECB: Monetary Policy and Fed/ECB Divergence
- 1UK PMI June at 49.4: UK shifts into composite contraction, industry hits 3-month low23/06/2026
- 2ECB - Kazimir: The direction is clear, but every cut remains data-dependent23/06/2026
- 3ECB: Kazimir confirms clear direction, but each step remains data-dependent24/06/2026
- 4ECB: Kazimir confirms the downward direction, but each step remains data-dependent24/06/2026
- 5ECB data-dependent, Fed's Warsh hawkish: monetary divergence becomes the theme of summer 202625/06/2026
- 6ECB: Kazimir confirms the downward trend, pace remains data-dependent - EUR/USD under structural pressure25/06/2026
- 7Merz unveils €10 billion in tax relief: Germany's budgetary awakening changes the ECB equation02/07/2026
