Cobalt & EV: The Phantom Supply Risk Resurfaces Despite the Rise of LFP

While EV registrations rose by 3.2% in May in the EU and the first mega battery recycling plant opened in British Columbia, OilPrice.com notes that cobalt remains a critical supply risk for premium EVs-a vulnerability that the rise of LFP only partially addresses.

The Fact

The global EV industry faces a persistent risk of cobalt disruption. OilPrice.com (22/06/2026) reports that cobalt dependency remains critical for high-energy-density NMC batteries (premium EVs, long range), despite the rise of LFP (Lithium Iron Phosphate) batteries in the standard-range segment. Meanwhile, new car registrations in the EU grew by 3.2% in May 2026, driven by electric demand- in France, gasoline car registrations have plunged by 36.8% since the start of the year (Le Figaro Économie, 23/06). In British Columbia, the world's largest EV battery recycling mega-factory has opened (Mining.com, 24/06).

Our Take

The shift from cobalt to LFP is real for standard-range vehicles (Tesla Model 3 RWD, BYD Seagull), but incomplete for long-range premium SUVs and sedans where energy density remains non-negotiable. The concentration of cobalt production in the DRC (over 70% of global supply) is the structural Achilles' heel of an accelerated electric transition. The opening of the recycling mega-factory in BC highlights industry awareness-but recycling will only cover a fraction of primary demand by 2030. A geopolitical disruption in the DRC (elections, armed conflicts in Kivu) could trigger a cobalt LME price surge with a 6- to 18-month transmission delay on NMC cell production costs.

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