MiCA D-3: What Geography for CASP Licenses in Europe?

Binance suspends, others settle in—but not just anywhere. The mapping of MiCA approvals reveals that European crypto harmonization replicates the classic regulatory arbitrage of traditional finance.

The Fact

Three days before the effective entry into force of MiCA for exchanges (July 1, 2026), a mapping of CASP (Crypto Asset Service Provider) authorizations reveals that applications are concentrated in a limited number of Member States. Binance, without authorization, suspends its services in several EU countries. Coinbase Europe, Kraken, and Paymium (France) are making progress in this area, capturing transit flows.

Our Analysis

The geography of MiCA authorization faithfully replicates the pattern of European regulatory arbitrage observed with MiFID II for brokers or AIFMD for alternative funds: Ireland, Luxembourg, Lithuania, and Germany are positioning themselves as natural hubs—short deadlines, responsive competent authorities, and subsequent European passport. This phenomenon fragments the European crypto market at the very moment MiCA was supposed to unify it. For the European retail investor, the implication is immediate: verify that their main exchange holds a CASP authorization in a recognized Member State or anticipate a migration. EUR/crypto liquidity will remain fragmented until authorizations stabilize, likely in Q4 2026.

To Monitor

• July 1: Effective date of Binance suspension—flows toward authorized exchanges (Coinbase, Kraken, Bitstamp)
• AMF and BaFin: CASP registers updated in real time
• EUR DEX volume in July: Signal of a structural shift toward non-custodial solutions