Berkshire $397B in cash: Greg Abel inherits a dry weapon and a message
Berkshire's record war chest at the opening of the Abel era is as much a tool as an implicit signal on US valuations.
8 min ago 0 0
GCAP: The Multi-Billion-Dollar Contract Passes the Point of No Return for the Future Tri-National Fighter
The UK-Japan-Italy Global Combat Air Programme has just secured a major contract described as a "major step forward." For non-American defense investors, this signals that the program is politically irreversible—and industrially open to partnerships.
yesterday 7 4
Daniel Schmidt
Warsh: AI Has "Immense Implications" for Rates – Framework Signal or Smokescreen?
The Fed chair considers artificial intelligence decisive for the future of rates. Behind the statement: a central banker securing flexibility in an environment impossible to model.
yesterday 8 2
Aisha Bello
NFP June 2026: 147K jobs below consensus, unemployment down due to contraction - market reads dovish ahead of July 4th
Fewer jobs than expected, unemployment declining for the wrong reasons: June's NFP report gives markets the dovish reading they were waiting for. July's FOMC meeting becomes the pivotal issue under Warsh.
yesterday 7 1
Heinrich Vogel
NFP June 2026: Disappointing Jobs, Deceptive Unemployment - The Fed Trapped Ahead of the FOMC
The U.S. employment report for July 3 presents an end-of-cycle paradox: job creation is slowing, but the unemployment rate is falling—not due to economic strength, but because of a shrinking labor force linked to tighter migration policies. Markets are relieved, but Warsh's Fed doesn't have a free hand.
Jul 3, 2026 at 08:35 9 3
Heinrich Vogel
Trump renews offensive against the Fed: governors in the crosshairs
After installing Kevin Warsh as Fed chair, Trump's allies cross a new threshold: reshaping the entire Board of Governors. An institutional escalation with potentially systemic consequences for U.S. monetary credibility.
Jul 3, 2026 at 08:34 8 5
Heinrich Vogel
Warsh wants the Fed to talk less. Wall Street is listening even harder.
Kevin Warsh advocates for discretion at the Fed. Paradoxically, this stance itself sends a strong hawkish signal to bond markets.
Jul 2, 2026 at 10:17 8 1
Heinrich Vogel
Warsh "hammer" & BoJ "appropriate": two central banks fine-tune their signaling ahead of July's double FOMC-BoJ meeting
Two contradictory signals from the Fed in 48 hours, a Japanese government encoding its tolerance for further BoJ hikes – one month ahead of the FOMC/BoJ double meeting, markets are reading between the lines.
Jun 28, 2026 at 15:39 9 3
Heinrich Vogel
Low Oil Prices and the Fed: The Deflationary Paradox That Could Trap Warsh
WTI below $70 is usually good news. Not this time. With core PCE at +4.0%, energy disinflation masks services inflation and puts the Fed in an untenable position.
Jun 26, 2026 at 23:04 12 4
Heinrich Vogel
Kevin Warsh softens his signal: the Fed between anti-inflation credibility and political pragmatism
After weeks of hawkish rhetoric, the *Financial Times* reveals that President Warsh is seeking to reassure markets. This shift in tone alters the geometry of the bond market for H2 2026—without constituting an official pivot.
Jun 26, 2026 at 08:37 13 7
Heinrich Vogel
PCE May 2026: U.S. Inflation Exceeds 4%, Warsh's Fed Under Maximum Pressure
For the first time since June 2023, the US PCE index exceeds 4% year-over-year—and markets must now price in a rate hike that many had hoped was unlikely.
Jun 25, 2026 at 22:33 12 2
Heinrich Vogel
ECB data-dependent, Fed's Warsh hawkish: monetary divergence becomes the theme of summer 2026
Kazimir (ECB) confirms the direction of rate cuts but conditions each step on data. Goldman anticipates a persistently restrictive Warsh Fed. The Fed/ECB divergence is emerging as the key macro theme of the summer-with direct implications for EUR/USD and peripheral bonds.
Jun 25, 2026 at 03:01 8 2