Critical materials sovereignty: Eni enters Chile, Ottawa tightens grip on Teck - the Western front expands

Context

Two convergent announcements at the beginning of July 2026 confirm the acceleration of the "materials sovereignty" of the Western bloc. The Italian company Eni invests $225M in the Chilean lithium project of the American EnergyX (Oil Price, 03/07). Canada commits up to C$400M in Teck Resources to secure its production of zinc, copper, and germanium (Reuters, 03/07). These two moves add to the Chinese-free Korean investments in tungsten (Sangdong mine, Almonty) already covered in the terres-rares-strategie-us thread.

The Data

• Eni / EnergyX: $225M to finance the pilot phases of the lithium project in Chile (LiTAS demonstration process). Objective communicated by EnergyX: around 1 Mt of LCE (lithium carbonate equivalent) over the life of the deposit - figure to be confirmed by the FEED.
• Canada / Teck Resources: up to C$400M in capital contribution, targeting zinc, copper, germanium - three metals listed on the 2026 Canadian critical list.
• APT tungsten price: ~$330-340/MTU (recall thread, stable).
• Lithium carbonate price (China reference, battery quality): in the range of $13,000-14,000/t in Q2 2026 according to Fastmarkets, with a rebound of around 15-20% since the low of late 2025.

Analysis

The pattern is clear: governments and major energy companies are shifting from a role as customers to a role as shareholders. Eni secures lithium upstream to cover the needs of a future electric fleet; Ottawa protects Teck from a foreign takeover while channeling its production towards North America. This movement is parallel to the investments by MP Materials in Texas (Independence plant, Fort Worth) and Energy Fuels in Utah (White Mesa refinery) on rare earths. The "offtake + equity" strategy is gradually replacing simple contractualization.

Probabilized Scenarios

• Base (55%): Other European majors follow Eni (Total, Shell) on Latin American lithium/nickel.
• Optimistic (25%): Brussels activates the Critical Raw Materials Act with an equivalent "BuyEU" by the end of 2026.
• Pessimistic (20%): Chinese tightening on gallium/germanium/graphite restrictions defuses the Western maneuver.

Implications for the Portfolio

Actors to integrate into a "supply chain sovereign" thesis: Teck Resources (TECK), Ivanhoe Electric (IE), Almonty Industries (AII.TO), MP Materials (MP), Energy Fuels (UUUU). Avoid companies exposed to a single sensitive geography (DRC-cobalt, China-graphite).

Risks and Blind Spots

Exploding CAPEX costs (budget/realization ratios regularly exceed 1.5x); ESG and social risks in Chile (local opposition to extraction) and Canada (indigenous communities); spot price volatility for lithium and copper.

To Watch

EnergyX/Eni final investment decision (FID) in Q4 2026; Ottawa/Teck closing calendar; Sangdong production Q3-Q4 (Almonty); potential announcement by Brussels on the Critical Raw Materials Act.