Week of June 30: Quarterly close, rebound in sowing, and FOMC on the horizon - the market calendar

The final week of the quarter focuses on three critical events: the technical close on June 30, the rebound in AI semiconductors, and the approach of the July FOMC. Wolfe Research remains bullish on H2.

The Fact

Wall Street Week Ahead (Seeking Alpha, 28/06/2026) and Wolfe Research maintain a bullish conviction on US stocks for the second half of 2026, driven by semiconductors and AI. The week begins with the quarter-end close on June 30—a crucial technical milestone for indices and Bitcoin—ahead of a decisive FOMC meeting on July 29-30. Semiconductors set the tone: Marvell, Micron, and Coherent rebound in the same week.

Our Take

Wolfe Research bets on a market re-widening in H2: a rotation from equal-weight (RSP) to cap-weighted (SPY) if AI demand holds, or a continued value rotation if big tech disappoints in Q2. The key unknown remains Warsh’s forward guidance at the FOMC: a dovish signal would trigger a broad rally, while a hawkish tone would compress multiples again. The June 30 quarter-end close will be technical first, macro second. Long-term investors can use the current consolidation to rebalance toward discounted AI semis—without leverage, given Q2 earnings.

Watchlist

• June 30: S&P 500 and BTC quarter-end close (dual technical signal)
• FOMC July 29-30: Warsh’s tone and forward guidance
• Mag7 Q2 results (mid-July): validation of the semiconductor rebound