Nvidia chips banned: prices doubled on the Chinese black market, export controls have a downside

Nvidia GPUs under embargo are trading at more than double their official price on China's gray markets-proof that Chinese AI demand far outstrips legal supply, and that sanctions create a scarcity market as much as they curb it.

The Fact

According to the Financial Times reported by Investing.com (June 24, 2026), U.S.-embargoed Nvidia chips (H100, A100, derivatives) are being traded on parallel markets in China at more than double their official price. Intermediaries based in Singapore, Hong Kong, and the UAE are acting as relays to bypass restrictions from the U.S. Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS).

Our Analysis

The price gap between the black market and official channels directly measures the intensity of unmet AI demand in China. It simultaneously signals the effectiveness of sanctions on legal channels and their limitations through circumvention flows. For Nvidia, this represents demand captured by traffickers rather than direct sales. For Huawei Ascend and AMD (via third-party licenses), it opens a lasting competitive window in a captive market where customers are willing to pay a 100%+ premium.

To Watch

New BIS export control restrictions; Nvidia Q2 results (August 2026); Huawei Ascend 910C announcements.