Korea: "big money" exits Samsung/SK Hynix - HBM peak signal?

ETNews reports net institutional outflows from Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, presented as a signal of a peak in the AI memory cycle. To be contrasted with TSMC's +68%.

The fact

ETNews (July 13, 2026) reports that several major global managers - Fidelity International, BlackRock - have recently reduced their positions in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, interpreted by local analysts as a "cycle peak signal" on AI memory (HBM3E, HBM4). On the same day, TSMC publishes a June revenue up 68% YoY. Two market readings coexist.

Our analysis

Two defensible hypotheses. Cycle peak: HBM valuations are at historical highs, the 2027 capex announced by Nanya, Micron, and SK saturate the fab queue - supply will catch up with demand, and managers are exiting overbought positions. No peak: the substitution Blackwell → Rubin (2027) changes the game, and TSMC signals an acceleration, not a plateau. The next quarter will decide.

To watch

The Q3 guidance (SK Hynix end of July, Micron mid-September), and the HBM4 vs HBM3E mix in Blackwell Ultra deliveries. The mix pivot is seen before it is said. The memory-chip-capex thread already tracks announced capex - these are the ones that will weigh on 2028.